Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace is a master of football espionage. Nobody embraces the idea of fooling both his opponents and the media into what he might be doing, be it during free agency or the draft. He believes in the gamesmanship that his job entitles and that he must do everything in his power to find an edge within the bounds of the rules.
There’s nothing wrong with that. However, at the end of the day Pace is a human being driven by necessities. He can hide his intentions all he wants, but he can’t conceal his roster. Everybody knows its composition and where the strengths and weakness lay. It’s why for the past three years, had people bothered to use a sensible line of thinking, they wouldn’t have been surprised by a single one of the Bears’ first round picks.
That same process may also reveal the likely move they go with next month.
2015: Kevin White
Pace basically telegraphed this move with one of his first big decisions as Bears GM. That came when he decided to trade veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets. People weren’t surprised per se about the move. Marshall had again found a way to be a distraction in another locker room. While removing him was good for the culture, it opened up a giant hole at receiver.
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Unsurprisingly Pace went right after it in the draft, selecting Kevin White out of West Virginia #7 overall. It seemed like a great move at the time. White not only stood 6’3″ but ran a blistering 4.35 in the 40-yard dash. He looked like the total package. Injuries though derailed his career, forcing the Bears to look elsewhere for their solutions.
2016: Leonard Floyd
The Bears had 35 sacks in 2015, ranking them 18th in the NFL. A lingering problem for their edge rush position was a lack of speed. Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young all boasted similar traits. Not only that but two of them were already reaching the 30-year old mark and McPhee began a long battle with injuries to his lower body.
It wasn’t hard to predict that they’d target a young pass rusher in the first round that year. Leonard Floyd represented everything they wanted. He was young, athletic and fast. The complete opposite of what those other three offered. People were already predicting he would be the target before the draft even began.
2017: Mitch Trubisky
Experts convinced themselves that the Bears were actually telling the truth when they said Mike Glennon would be the guy in 2017. Had they looked seriously at his contract structure and the fact he’s MIKE GLENNON, they’d have known Pace was almost certain to go after a quarterback with his first pick. Sure the trade up was a surprise, but the position choice shouldn’t have been. Mitch Trubisky was always the target and had been for a long time.
So let’s think about this logically for a moment. Free agency removed any final idea that wide receiver might be in play at #8. The three positions that stand out most that went largely untouched were edge rusher, linebacker, and offensive line. Knowing Pace as most of us do by now, he tends to target players with significant athletic upside who performed well at the scouting combine. Putting all this data together, it’s fair to see these are the most realistic names to watch come April 26th.
- Quenton Nelson
- Roquan Smith
- Harold Landry
- Tremaine Edmunds
- Leighton Vander Esch
All those names check both boxes. There is always a risk of a wild card situation but given what history has shown with this regime, it’s a safe bet one of those young men will be a Chicago Bear.
