Odds Say This Will Happen if The Bears Start Mitch Trubisky

Will the Chicago Bears start Mitch Trubisky? That’s certainly the debate going on across Bears nation at the moment. Beyond that there is a deeper question though. Will the team improve at all if the rookie comes in or is this just a desperation move for a team that isn’t as good as people thought? Some are convinced it’s a surefire upgrade. Others worry it will ruin his confidence and serve no purpose.

Often the best way to get a gauge on what to expect is to look at history. I went back all the way to the 1970 merger and documented every top five quarterback drafted. The criteria was as follows. They had to have started their rookie season on the bench and come in at some point during the middle of the season. From there two stats were charted. How many games the team won prior to them coming in and how many won while he played. The results were rather fascinating

Jared Goff 

• Team started 4-5 (Case Keenum)
• Went 0-7 after he came in

Eli Manning

• Team started 5-4 (Kurt Warner)
• Went 1-6 after he came in

Joey Harrington

• Team started 0-2 (Mike McMahon)
• Went 3-9 after he came in (injury ended season early)

Alex Smith 

• Team started 1-3 (Tim Rattay)
• Went 2-5 after he came in (injury ended season early)

Vince Young 

• Team started 0-3 (Kerry Collins)
• Went 8-5 after he came in

Donovan McNabb

• Team started 2-7 (Doug Pederson)
• Went 2-4 after he came in

Akili Smith 

• Team started 0-4 (Jeff Blake)
• Went 1-3 after he came in (injury ended season early)

Heath Schuler 

• Team started 1-3 (John Friesz)
• Went 1-7 after he came in

Vinny Testaverde

• Team started 4-7 (Steve DeBerg and Jim Zorn)
• Went 0-4 after he came in

Jim Everett

• Team started 7-4 (Steve Bartkowski and Steve Dils)
• Went 3-2 after he came in

Jim McMahon

• Team started 0-2 (Bob Avellini)
• Went 3-4 after he came in (strike-shortened season)

Dan Pastorini 

• Team started 0-4 (Charley Johnson)
• Went 4-4 after he came in (missed games with injury)

Based on the data given seven teams saw their records slightly improve when they decided to start their rookies. Three teams saw no significant change. Three of those listed failed to improve their teams when they were eventually called upon. However, it’s worth noting that two of those quarterbacks went on to become Pro Bowlers (Manning and Testaverde). The other (Goff) is 3-1 this season and leader of the #1 offense in the NFL.

What does this say? Odds are that starting Trubisky will give the Bears a boost in the win column and even if it doesn’t it will likely pay dividends for them in 2018 and beyond. In other words there aren’t many downsides to making the move.