The Chicago Blackhawks thought they had Florida’s 2026 first-round pick locked up in the Seth Jones trade. Instead, the Blackhawks’ 2027 first-round pick return means waiting another year; watching the defending back-to-back Stanley Cup champions potentially draft a franchise talent while Chicago gets nothing immediate from the Seth Jones trade that sent their veteran defenseman to Florida.
Florida finished the 2025-26 regular season in 24th place, eighth-worst in the NHL, triggering the top-10 protection in the Jones trade. The Panthers keep their 2026 first-rounder, which now carries a 6% chance of landing Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg. Chicago gets Florida’s unprotected 2027 first-round pick instead, turning what could have been immediate draft capital into a waiting game with significant risk.
The Trade Breakdown and What Chicago Lost
When the Blackhawks dealt Seth Jones to Florida, the agreement included top-10 protection on the Panthers’ 2026 first-round pick. If Florida finished in the bottom 10, they’d retain the pick and send Chicago their 2027 first instead, unprotected. At the time, with Florida coming off consecutive championships and Jones contributing as a top-four defenseman, the protection seemed irrelevant.
Then injuries gutted the Panthers. Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Reinhart, Florida’s championship core, all missed significant time, and the team cratered. Chicago watched a potential top-10 selection slip away as the Panthers’ standing solidified throughout April.
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Now the Blackhawks are stuck in limbo. They gave up a veteran defenseman who helped Florida win another Cup, and instead of cashing in with immediate draft capital in a strong class, they’re waiting until 2027 with no idea where that pick will land.
Here’s where things get interesting for Chicago. That 2027 first-rounder is completely unprotected, meaning it could fall anywhere from first overall to 32nd depending on how Florida’s season unfolds.
If the Panthers stay healthy and rebound, which is the expectation, the Blackhawks are looking at a late first-round pick for Seth Jones. Picks in the 20-32 range rarely move the needle for rebuilding teams, and Chicago is still very much in asset-accumulation mode. They need high-end talent, not mid-tier prospects.
But if Florida’s injury problems persist, or if age catches up to their core faster than expected, that 2027 pick could land in the lottery. It’s a gamble Chicago didn’t want to take, but it’s the hand they’ve been dealt. The upside exists; it’s just delayed and dependent on factors completely outside the Blackhawks’ control.
What the Chicago Blackhawks Gave Up
Seth Jones wasn’t just salary relief for the Blackhawks. He was a defenseman capable of eating minutes against top competition, running a power play, and mentoring younger players. Chicago moved him to accelerate their rebuild and acquire draft capital, banking on Florida maintaining their championship form and sending back a pick in the teens or twenties.
Instead, Jones helped the Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup, playing a significant role on their blue line; while Chicago watched their return evaporate into a future consideration. The optics aren’t great. The Blackhawks traded a contributor to a Cup winner and got nothing immediate in return except cap space.
Let’s be clear about what just happened. The Florida Panthers won back-to-back Stanley Cups, collapsed due to injuries in year three, and now get to draft in the top 10 while retaining their championship core. They have a six percent shot at Gavin McKenna, the consensus top prospect in the 2026 class, and a guaranteed top-10 selection that could add a cost-controlled future star to an already loaded roster.
For Chicago, it’s the inverse. They’re watching a team that just hoisted two Cups potentially land a franchise-altering talent while the Blackhawks wait another year for a pick that might not even crack the top 15.
The lottery is on May 8th. If Florida wins and selects McKenna, the Blackhawks will have traded Seth Jones for a 2027 first-rounder that could end up in the 20s if the Panthers bounce back. That’s not catastrophic, but it’s a far cry from what Chicago envisioned when the deal was made.
What’s Next for the Blackhawks
Chicago’s rebuild continues, and the Seth Jones trade was always about the long game. The Blackhawks have Connor Bedard anchoring their future, and they’ve accumulated picks and prospects through other moves. Losing out on Florida’s 2026 first stings, but it’s not a rebuild-killer.
Still, the waiting game is frustrating. The 2027 draft is 14 months away. Chicago has no control over whether that pick is eighth overall or 28th. They’re at the mercy of Florida’s health, performance, and whether the Panthers’ championship window stays open or slams shut.
For now, the Blackhawks watch. They watch Florida potentially draft a star. They watch the 2027 draft lottery odds fluctuate. And they hope that when their turn finally comes, the pick they waited for is worth the delay.
