Ben Johnson Has A Draft Tell That Is Way More Important Than You Realize

He might not be the general manager, but Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson is way more involved in the NFL draft process than most realize. Several reports have stated that he has significant say in personnel decisions. In other words, no selection happens without the green light from him. That was plainly evident from last year. Up until then, the Bears had operated in a specific way under GM Ryan Poles. They focused on traits and targeted positions of need. With Johnson’s influence last year, they focused less on need and more on taking the best player available.

It is a simple and effective approach that several proven organizations have adopted. However, it doesn’t stop there. Something else has become noteworthy with Johnson since he started gaining more influence in draft decisions, going back a few years to his time in Detroit. He always targets younger prospects. Every offensive player he’s been involved with since 2021 was never over the age of 21.

• OT Penei Sewell – 21
• WR Jameson Williams – 21
• RB Jahmyr Gibbs – 21
• TE Colston Loveland – 20

Maybe it’s a coincidence, but history might be influencing Ben Johnson.

The coach entered the NFL in 2012 as an assistant with the Miami Dolphins. During his time there, he would see them make eight 1st round picks. The three best ones were right tackle Ja’Wuan James, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. All were 21 years old. Every other player was 22 or older. All but one had disappointing careers. That was quarterback Ryan Tannehill. It is possible that the seed was planted back then that the wise decision is to target the player who was productive in college, even though they were incredibly young.

Once he saw that strategy continue to work in Detroit, it laid the foundation of how Johnson wished to operate in Chicago. Loveland fit all of the criteria. He was uniquely gifted for his position, won a lot at Michigan, and was only 20. He was an instant sensation for the Bears as a rookie. If we assume the Bears stick to this approach for the 2026 draft, it narrows the list of potential names they might consider.

Johnson might be onto something.

If you want further proof that this method has some merit, just look at the Bears’ recent history of 1st round pick. You’ll find that several notable names were 21 or younger when the team selected them.

• Brian Urlacher
• Tommie Harris
• Roquan Smith
• Darnell Wright

In fact, the only player who was an outright bust that fit the criteria was David Terrell in 2001. Everybody was at least solid. Why is this? The running theory is that younger players who are that productive so early often have the best potential to make a successful NFL transition. They have a higher ceiling with greater room to develop physically and technically.

Data backs this up. Michael Salfino of FiveThirtyEight wrote an article on this subject back in 2018. He came to a fascinating conclusion. Players who were 21 or younger had a higher Career Approximate Value (43.8) than older players.

• 22 years old was 42.9
• 23 years old was 39.5
• 24 years old was 33.6

We must not forget that Ben Johnson was a math whiz in college. Crunching numbers and recognizing trends was something he was very good at. It is more than plausible that he caught onto this trend years ago and aimed to use it once he took control of his own team. We must keep it in mind when we look at the list of potential players the Bears might consider at #25.