Edge rusher is a position that is 100% on the table for the Chicago Bears in the 1st round. Recently, I did a study on why the team has been so bad at identifying capable players at that position over the year, particularly in the 1st round. I found that they often didn’t account for the SPG (Sacks Per Game) metric. All of the prospects they drafted had below-average SPG numbers in college. Meanwhile, Richard Dent had one of the highest sack numbers per game they’ve ever drafted in the Super Bowl era. Go figure.
Still, plenty of people aren’t willing to accept sacks as a proper metric for determining future NFL pass rushers. The popular one these days is pass rush win rate, which is used by analytics experts across the board. Well, Football Insights compiled the latest data on the incoming 2026 draft class.
When comparing this chart to previous 1st round edge rushers going back to 2017, you find that the threshold most of the good ones need to cross is around 18.5%. After that, you start seeing quite a few more draft busts like Dallas Turner, Myles Murphy, Payton Turner, and Lukas Van Ness.
| Rank | Player | Draft Year | College | Career Win Rate % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Myles Garrett | 2017 | Texas A&M | 31.7% |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 2019 | Kentucky | 30.3% |
| 3 | Laiatu Latu | 2024 | UCLA | 29.1% |
| 4 | Chase Young | 2020 | Ohio State | 27.2% |
| 5 | Will Anderson Jr. | 2023 | Alabama | 26.2% |
| 6 | Nick Bosa | 2019 | Ohio State | 25.5% |
| 7 | Will McDonald IV | 2023 | Iowa State | 25.2% |
| 8 | Aidan Hutchinson | 2022 | Michigan | 25.0% |
| 9 | Micah Parsons | 2021 | Penn State | 23.8% |
| 10 | George Karlaftis | 2022 | Purdue | 23.6% |
| 11 | Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2022 | Oregon | 22.8% |
| 12 | Tyree Wilson | 2023 | Texas Tech | 22.6% |
| 13 | Montez Sweat | 2019 | Mississippi St | 22.1% |
| 14 | Jaelan Phillips | 2021 | Miami | 21.8% |
| 15 | Gregory Rousseau | 2021 | Miami | 21.6% |
| 16 | Clelin Ferrell | 2019 | Clemson | 21.3% |
| 17 | Felix Anudike-Uzomah | 2023 | Kansas State | 20.5% |
| 18 | Jared Verse | 2024 | Florida State | 20.2% |
| 19 | Odafe Oweh | 2021 | Penn State | 18.9% |
| 20 | Chop Robinson | 2024 | Penn State | 18.8% |
| 21 | Brian Burns | 2019 | Florida State | 18.5% |
| 22 | Darius Robinson | 2024 | Missouri | 18.4% |
| 23 | Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | 2021 | Washington | 18.1% |
| 24 | Kwity Paye | 2021 | Michigan | 18.0% |
| 25 | Payton Turner | 2021 | Houston | 17.2% |
| 26 | Bradley Chubb | 2018 | NC State | 17.2% |
| 27 | Jermaine Johnson II | 2022 | Florida State | 16.8% |
| 28 | Rashan Gary | 2019 | Michigan | 16.5% |
| 29 | Lukas Van Ness | 2023 | Iowa | 16.2% |
| 30 | Myles Murphy | 2023 | Clemson | 14.8% |
| 31 | Dallas Turner | 2024 | Alabama | 13.6% |
| 32 | Marcus Davenport | 2018 | UTSA | 13.5% |
| 33 | K’Lavon Chaisson | 2020 | LSU | 13.1% |
| 34 | Travon Walker | 2022 | Georgia | 10.1% |
The Chicago Bears now have a good idea of who to avoid.
Now, with any data chart, there are outliers. Travon Walker has become a successful pass rusher despite being at the bottom of the list. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Tyree Wilson, and Clelin Ferrell have all been huge disappointments. Yet the trends still hold for the most part. Going by this, we now know the Bears should have some serious misgivings about some of the 1st round edge rushers they’ve been projected to select with that 25th overall pick.
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- Zion Young – 10.6%
- T.J. Parker – 14.0%
- Keldric Faulk – 10.3%
- Gabe Jacas – 14.5%
- Akheem Mesidor – 14.5%
It’s worth noting that these numbers are calculated over the entire college career. Sometimes it takes players some time to figure it out. So do the numbers change if we just focus on their final seasons?
- Zion Young – 17.4%
- T.J. Parker – 15.5%
- Keldric Faulk – 9.9%
- Gabe Jacas – 18.0%
- Akheem Mesidor – 18.7%
So you see, Jacas and Mesidor seemed to figure things out a little more towards the end of college. Young improved as well, but is still below average. Faulk and Parker remain underwhelming. We already know the highest scorers, like David Bailey and Rueben Bain, won’t reach the 25th pick. Cashius Howell (19.7%) has a chance, but the Chicago Bears may not like his smaller frame.
The Bears must be careful who they gamble on.
While this edge rusher class is deep in terms of overall talent, finding one has been especially difficult for the Chicago Bears. Seeing this new data makes one wonder if taking one in the 1st round is the best idea. Unless someone big happens to fall, none of the available options will qualify as safe bets. That means they’ll have to gamble on projections or shift their focus to another position with less risk. They have two 2nd round picks in this draft. They can easily use one of those to get the edge-rush help they need.
This comes down to how confident they are that whichever player they target can make the transition. We already saw with Shemar Turner and Dayo Odeyingbo that the Bears aren’t exactly great at pinpointing quality defensive line talent. Having failed to make any additions in free agency this year, it feels like this draft is make-or-break for them. That means being extra careful with who they go after.
