The Chicago Bears run countless simulations leading up to the NFL draft, trying to determine the most likely outcomes. This helps them prepare for any eventuality, so they will know what to do if things take an unexpected turn. That is far more likely this year as the team prepares to select 25th overall in the 2026 draft. It is far more difficult to predict what will happen in the first 24 picks rather than the first eight or nine. In situations like this, the best thing to do is break things down into scenarios.
These are situations in which a specific sequence occurs, presenting Bears general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson with a decision. They could take the obvious name on the board. They could go after a position of need if nobody stands out. Or they could see if they can manipulate things to their advantage. I broke down four potential scenarios they could face next month.
Best-case scenario: Rueben Bain Jr. falls to Chicago Bears at #25
There are certain players in a draft class you just know are going to be good. It doesn’t matter if they don’t fit the exact prototype teams look for from a physical standpoint. They just have the determination, grit, and competitive edge to dominate anyway. That is Rueben Bain. All people talk about is his shorter 6’2″ frame and 30-inch arms, leaving many to wonder if he can handle much bigger NFL tackles. None went before the 14th. Yet he played them plenty of times in college and wrecked them all with Miami. His dominance guided the Hurricanes to the national championship game. He is projected to go high next month, but history says teams tend to get gun-shy around players with his limited measurables. Only three players since 1999 have gone in the 1st round with arms under 32 inches. That could lead to a tumble down the board.
| Name | Position | School | Draft Year | Pick | Arm Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calijah Kancey | DT | Pittsburgh | 2023 | 19th | 30.625″ |
| David Pollack | Edge | Georgia | 2005 | 14th | 30.875″ |
| Melvin Ingram III | Edge | South Carolina | 2012 | 18th | 31.5″ |
All-in scenario: Bears trade up into the top 15 for Monroe Freeling or David Bailey
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Failing to get Maxx Crosby might’ve left Poles and Johnson anxious about not making a splash. If they’re still committed to the idea, their last opportunity will be moving up in the 1st round. If that happens, it will only be for one of two things: a left tackle or a pass rusher. Freeling is a rapidly rising tackle from Georgia who has every physical tool imaginable, from size to length to power and athleticism. He’s a little inexperienced but that isn’t likely to concern Johnson. Bailey is the best pure pass rusher in this class. He’s quick, explosive, instinctive, and a natural at sniffing out the quarterback. He has everything the Bears don’t. Pairing him with Montez Sweat would be a beautiful blend.
White flag scenario: Bears trade out of the 1st round
Picking this late in the 1st round can often be incredibly difficult because most of the blue-chip talent is long gone, and those remaining have red flags around them. The Chicago Bears would rather not force the issue if none of the guys they like reach their spot. In such cases, the best solution is trading down. This allows the team to accumulate some extra picks. They can then reassess their board and take a player they’re comfortable with. We saw that last year when the Houston Texans flipped the 25th pick to New York, who took Jaxson Dart. Houston moved to the top of the 2nd round, where they grabbed wide receiver Jayden Higgins, who had a solid rookie season. We already know Poles isn’t afraid to move down, having done it twice in 2023. This is right up his alley.
Worst case scenario: They take Caleb Banks at #25
It might sound odd that taking a gigantic 6’6″ defensive tackle with 35-inch arms who dominated the Senior Bowl is the worst-case scenario. However, the issues with Banks have become more complicated. He was already drawing comparisons to Gervon Dexter, who isn’t a good fit for this defense. Then you add his lack of production in college, and that raises further questions. Lastly, there are the injuries. He already missed most of last season due to a foot injury. Now reports following the scouting combine say he broke his other foot and will require surgery. Any NFL player with brittle feet is concerning. That goes doubly so for somebody who is over 320 lbs. The Bears have an ugly history when taking risks on players with health problems. Betting on that luck to change with Banks is not a wise decision.
