People are racking their brains trying to decipher what the Chicago Bears have planned for their 25th overall pick in the upcoming 2026 NFL draft. It isn’t an easy task. Due to the lack of quarterbacks in this class, it is more difficult to pinpoint which direction the teams picking ahead of them will go. That means there are more scenarios that could play out than normal. Bears general manager Ryan Poles is conducting the NFL equivalent of wargames, running countless mock drafts to build a database of probabilities on how it might go.
However, there is another side to this. That is the man in charge. Up until now, Poles have only conducted draft picks inside the top 10 during the 1st round. This will be the first year he has sat in the bottom half, far away from the biggest action. That blind spot makes it difficult to assess what the GM might be thinking. In situations like this, the best thing to do is look into his history before coming to Chicago. That means going back to Poles’ tenure as a scout and personnel executive with the Kansas City Chiefs.
There are one of two likely outcomes with Ryan Poles in charge.
The first is that he plans to draft a pass rusher. Across his tenure in Kansas City, the Chiefs held a pick in the bottom third of the 1st round seven times. Of the three players drafted in that range, two were offensive weapons. Wide receiver Jon Baldwin came in 2011, and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire arrived in 2020. Baldwin was an outright bust, while Edwards-Helaire was a serviceable but disappointing starter. The other player was edge rusher Dee Ford, who collected 30.5 sacks in five seasons and made the Pro Bowl in 2018. He was eventually traded to San Francisco for a 2nd-round pick.
As for the other four outcomes? One was a trade down to accumulate more picks in 2016. The other three were traded for players at premium positions. Kansas City traded up in 2017 for Patrick Mahomes, flipped their 1st-round pick in 2019 to Seattle for defensive end Frank Clark, and did the same in 2021 for left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Based on the success experienced during his time there, Poles will do one of two things. He will either take a pass rusher with the 25th pick or trade it.
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| Year | Pick | Player / Asset | Outcome / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | No. 26 | Jon Baldwin (WR) | Selected after a trade down with Cleveland |
| 2014 | No. 23 | Dee Ford (LB) | Pro Bowler; recorded 30.5 sacks before being traded to SF. |
| 2016 | No. 28 | Traded Away | Traded to the 49ers to move out of the first round. |
| 2018 | No. 22 | Traded Away | Traded in the 2017 deal to move up for Patrick Mahomes. |
| 2019 | No. 29 | Traded Away | Traded to the Seahawks to acquire DE Frank Clark. |
| 2020 | No. 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) | Key part of the 2020/2022 Super Bowl rosters. |
| 2021 | No. 31 | Traded Away | Traded to the Ravens to acquire OT Orlando Brown |
This approach is hard to argue with.
After all, the Chiefs kept using it after Ryan Poles left. In 2022, they took pass rusher George Karlaftis with the 30th pick. They did the same again with Felix Anudike-Uzomah in 2023. Then, after taking speedy receiver Xavier Worthy in 2024, who’s been somewhat underwhelming, they added left tackle Josh Simmons last year. The strategy works. Clark was crucial to their Super Bowl wins in 2019 and 2022. Brown was the starter on that ’22 team. Karlaftis had 10.5 sacks in that 2023 repeat championship season.
All of the evidence points Poles in two directions. Unless there is an obvious option at left tackle like Simmons on the board, he will take a pass rusher at #25. Either that, or he’ll flip the pick to another team for one. We’ve already heard about Maxx Crosby. Other names who are about to need huge extensions include Tuli Tuipulotu and Travon Walker. Maybe offering up the 25th pick might convince one of those teams to make a deal if they don’t think they can afford such contracts.
Poles has the formula. It’s just a matter of which part he decides to follow.
