The Chicago Bears head into somewhat uncharted territory this April. After three consecutive years of holding a pick in the top 10 of the draft, they will be sitting at #25 this year. It leaves people wondering how general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson should approach it. The team has a clear set of needs on their roster, going from left tackle to edge rusher, defensive tackle, and safety. They remain in the evaluation process, and it’s not yet clear how the board is likely to unfold on night one.
However, we can lean on history to get a feel for how it goes. Here’s what we know about the 2026 class. It is light on quarterbacks. As of writing this, only Fernando Mendoza is a surefire 1st rounder. Alabama’s Ty Simpson is a possibility, but far from a guarantee. Defensively, it is a stacked class with every position group being well-represented in the 1st round. The last time a draft came together with similar dimensions was in 2022. Only one quarterback (Kenny Pickett) went in the 1st round. If the same holds true here, the path ahead for the Bears becomes clear.
They should trade up.
The Chicago Bears should be thinking quality over quantity this year.
There was an interesting juxtaposition in the 2022 draft. Through the first nine picks, there was no movement at all in terms of trading. However, that changed rapidly as it moved into the teens and 20s. Between picks 11 and 27, there were eight trades involving teams moving up. Here is how they fared.
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| Team trading up | Pick # | Player acquired |
| New Orleans Saints | 11 | Chris Olave |
| Detroit Lions | 12 | Jameson Williams |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 13 | Jordan Davis |
| New Orleans Saints | 19 | Trevor Penning |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | Trent McDuffie |
| Buffalo Bills | 23 | Kaiir Elam |
| New York Jets | 26 | Jermaine Johnson II |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 | Devin Lloyd |
The data doesn’t lie. By and large, teams that moved up for players they coveted were rewarded most of the time. Olave has cracked 1,000 yards twice. Williams is a Pro Bowler. Davis helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl. McDuffie and Lloyd are Pro Bowlers. By contrast, none of the teams that traded down came away looking great.
This is emblematic of the quarterback situation. When a class is weak at the position, it means there will be runs on non-QB positions sooner in the 1st round. Players who might’ve gone between #25-30 will go between #15-20 instead. That is why so many teams were compelled to move up in 2022. They knew the players they coveted would all be gone if they chose to sit and wait. That same reality is facing the Chicago Bears. Given the positions they seek help, it seems highly inadvisable to remain at #25.
Poles won’t fear being aggressive.
To date, the Bears GM has never moved up in the 1st round before. However, he’s come close a couple of times. In 2024, he had to be talked out of swinging a deal to go get Rome Odunze when he feared the wide receiver wouldn’t fall to #9. Last year, the Bears reportedly placed several calls to try moving up for Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. We know Poles is willing to be aggressive for the right player. This time around, he’s in a spot where it won’t be as expensive to move up, depending on how far he wants to go.
Going from #25 to, say, #20 or #19 would cost around a 4th round pick. That might be a worthwhile price to pay if it’s for somebody the Chicago Bears feel can be a true difference-maker. They only have seven picks in this draft, so Poles may have to get creative in restocking the inventory if he does decide to move up.
