The White Sox made a huge splash in free agency when they signed two time Nippon Professional Baseball MVP Munetaka Murakami to a two year, 34 million dollar deal earlier this week. For the first time in a while, the baseball media praised the White Sox, as this move could pay off in a big way for the organization.
While some have concerns about whether his game will translate over to the major leagues, there is no doubt that he has the power to be a consistent 30+ homer hitter in the major leagues. For just 17 million dollars a year, that would be fantastic production at that price point. Murakami hitting 30 home runs this season isn’t just a pipe dream, as the latest projections have him doing just that.
White Sox fans should be excited about FanGraphs’ recent projections about Murakami, as the projections signal the team has finally found their middle of the order power bat they’ve been missing for quite a while.
According to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections for 2026, they project Murakami to slash .231/.333/.458, adding 30 home runs, 75 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. This would be good for a projected 1.9 WAR season.
Murakami hitting 30 home runs in his first major league season would be a huge win for both him and the White Sox, as that would put him in the conversation to win the Rookie of the Year award. While obviously he and the White Sox would like the average to be a bit higher, you certainly would live with that if it’s coming with 30 home runs.
Murakami had an elite year in Japan in 2025. He hit .286 with 24 home runs and 52 RBIs in just 69 games. Those are elite power numbers in a limited amount of time. He also had a .392 OBP and a very impressive 1.051 OPS. Even if he has some issues adjusting to MLB pitching, he will likely still be a very productive player for the White Sox, and the projections certainly think the power will translate.
If Murakami does hit 30+ homers, it would mark the first time since 2023 that a player hit more than 30 home runs in a season for the Chicago White Sox. What would make it even sweeter would be it coming from the left side of the plate, as it seems like forever since the White Sox have had a lefty mash 30+ home runs.
Lenyn Sosa lead the team with 22 homers last season, while Colson Montgomery was right behind him with 21, which is impressive in itself, as he made his major league debut in July. With Montgomery likely to hit for power again in 2026, the White Sox could have two lefties push for 30 home runs by the end of next season.
Even if Murakami doesn’t quite meet these projections, it would still be a win, as even if he hits 20-25 and drives in 60, that is still quite the bang for your buck, as you don’t typically get 25 year old free agents that can produce those kind of numbers for 17 million a year.
I believe that Murakami will end up beating these other projections, as I could see his average being much higher, while getting on base on a much higher clip. Additionally, I believe the Sox will score a ton of runs, so 90+ RBIs is not out of the picture for Murakami. Time will tell what Murakami will end up doing, but it is more likely than not that he will be a force in the middle of the White Sox lineup in 2026.
