Caleb Williams has played well this season. Don’t let the pessimists fool you. He’s got a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (17 TDs to 5 INTs), has five 4th quarter comebacks, and is 9-3. Those are all good numbers. The one problem that most people can’t get over is his completion percentage, which is 58.1%. That is well below the league average and is often indicative of accuracy problems. Part of that is true. Williams hasn’t been consistently hitting his receivers when they’re open. However, those same receivers haven’t helped with mistimed routes, stumbles, slips, and outright drops.
Whatever the course, Bears fans fear this is a problem Williams cannot overcome. Accuracy is not something that can be easily improved. However, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune offered some interesting data on this subject.
Since 2016, 25 quarterbacks have had 300 or more pass attempts in a season and finished with a completion percentage below 60%. The list includes the rookie seasons for eight quarterbacks: Josh Allen, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, DeShone Kizer and Mitch Trubisky.
Others on the list include Carson Wentz, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler. Like Allen, some appeared on the list more than once. There are a couple of really good quarterbacks here and a some who are easy to forget.
The common line with all of those notable names?
It took them a few years to learn how to play the right way. Allen figured it out by his third season. Darnold didn’t click until his seventh. Mayfield flourished in his sixth. The lesson here is that some quarterbacks take longer than others to find their groove. You also need them to be under the guidance of an excellent offensive mind. Allen with Brian Daboll, Darnold with Kevin O’Connell, and Mayfield with Dave Canales. Williams being under Ben Johnson is an incredibly good thing.
Caleb Williams’ biggest problem is fundamental.
Based on his long track record, he’s never been naturally inaccurate. When he decides to cut it loose, he can throw the ball on absolute ropes. The problem is he’s playing in a totally new type of offense. Johnson’s system is timing-based. That means the quarterback is throwing to spots where his receivers will be rather than where they are. It is a tremendously effective scheme when it works, but it is hard to learn. Caleb Williams never played in anything like it during his college career. His offenses were always about finding the open guy and hitting him.
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Learning how to play with timing and anticipation is like going from high school algebra to a PHD in quantum physics. It can leave the head spinning. Everything must be in alignment for it to work. The quarterback must have crisp footwork, read the coverages quickly, and know where his receivers will be before their breaks. If you’re a tick too slow, the pass won’t be on target. That is pretty much what has been happening with Williams.
The good news is that he has improved significantly in the past couple of months. If this trajectory holds, Williams will blossom the same way Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield have.
