Caleb Williams entered Year 2 with a hell of a spotlight — and he’s done enough to justify the hype in spurts. But here’s the truth: through five games, he’s smack in the middle of one of the most bizarre, intriguing, and tight-ass QB class races we’ve seen in a while. The kid’s flashing brilliance, sure. But also showing the same damn flaws that made his rookie year so chaotic. And the wild part? His former college rival Jayden Daniels is leading in efficiency in some key metrics, and Drake Maye might already be the most complete passer in the group.
Before y’all come for my neck, understand that I love what Caleb has done this year and the improvements he’s made — but we gotta keep it 100. So let’s break this down. No sugarcoating. Just raw performance, trends, and how these young signal-callers actually stack up now that the NFL has real tape on ’em.
Caleb Williams: Still a Project With a Rocket Arm
What He’s Getting Right
1. Ball Security & Red Zone Killer Instinct
Williams has tightened up the turnover valve. Two picks in five games? That’s a damn miracle after his INT-prone rookie campaign. His 1.3% interception rate is elite, and he’s got 9 TDs already (tied with Bo Nix, of all people). More importantly, he’s finally scoring in the red zone. That was his kryptonite in 2024. Now? He’s converting chances like a vet, and even added two rushing TDs — something he never did last season. Thank Ben Johnson’s play design and Caleb’s willingness to use his legs.
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2. Fantasy Boom + Chunk Plays
In fantasy? The kid’s QB6. That’s not fluky either. Williams’ Explosive Play Rating (EPX) sits at 104.6, 13th in the league, and his +9.1 Production Premium (5th overall) tells you he’s outperforming expectations given the talent around him. He’s tied with Maye in fantasy PPG. That’s a real stat, not just nerd fuel.
3. Understanding the Offense
Ben Johnson’s scheme isn’t for simpletons. Yet Caleb’s digesting it like a veteran. He’s pushing the ball (8.32 aDOT, 9th in NFL), using play-action smartly (33.1%, 4th), and commanding the line well. It’s not always pretty, but it’s effective. And it’s night-and-day from the disorganized chaos we saw in 2024.
Where He’s Screwing Up
1. Accuracy Is Still a Disaster
Here’s the ugly truth: he can’t hit the broad side of a barn sometimes. 61.6% completion rate? That’s 33rd in the NFL. Worse: he’s missing from clean pockets. A 67.3% clean-pocket completion rate (23rd in the league) is unacceptable for a top QB. He’s got 52 overthrows through five weeks. Nobody else has more than 37. That’s bad.
- 15.3% bad throw rate – among the worst
- Deep ball at 40% – decent, but Maye is at 53.8%
- His intermediate accuracy? Historically awful. Think 520th out of 530 QBs since 2000. Yeah.
2. Holding the Damn Ball
Williams takes forever to throw (3.07 seconds per dropback – slowest in the league). He’s extending plays, sure, but also killing his line. His 8.8% escape rate leads the NFL, but he still gets sacked 5.49% of the time. Ben Johnson’s scheme needs rhythm and timing, and Williams doesn’t always play on schedule.
3. Supporting Cast Isn’t Helping, But Still…
His receivers rank 17th in Supporting Cast Efficiency. They’re not making his life easier, and his YAC per catch (4.9) is 23rd. Compare that to Bo Nix’s 5.9 and you get the picture: Williams’ throws aren’t letting guys run after the catch. Some of that is scheme. A lot of it is ball placement.
Let’s Talk About the Rest of the Class
Drake Maye: The Dude Is Surgical
Drake Maye might be the best quarterback from this class right now. He’s leading in EPA/play (0.26 vs. Williams’ 0.05), completion % (73.2%), YPA (8.5), clean pocket % (76.7%), pressure % (58.3%), success rate (51.5%), and deep ball accuracy (53.8%).
He’s also doing this behind a bottom-5 receiving corps. But he’s been protected well – the Pats are top-4 in pass-blocking – and he’s making the most of every snap. Don’t get it twisted, Maye’s not just accurate; he’s efficient, calm, and making pro-level throws weekly.
Jayden Daniels: Athletic God, Turnover Machine
Daniels was the golden boy last year. Now? He’s regressed. Completion % is a meh 62.1%, EPA/play barely beats Caleb, and his turnover issues are brutal.
He had 3 turnovers in Week 6 alone. His sack rate is the worst in the class (7.1%), and while his 176 rushing yards in 4 games are nice, he fumbled twice against the Bears — including a back-breaking botched handoff. Kingsbury’s offense is built around him, but defenses are catching up.
His weapons? Better than Caleb’s. Deebo, Terry, and Ertz > DJ Moore, Odunze, and Kmet. Yet Daniels has a 52.5 QBR. Caleb? 60.4.
Bo Nix: Sean Payton’s Pet Project
Nix is a game manager to the core. 6.2 YPA is dead last. His EPA/play is barely better than Williams. But here’s what he does have:
- Lowest sack rate in the class (2.64%)
- Solid red zone efficiency (36.6%)
- Safe, accurate short game
He also has the worst average depth of target in the league (7.11 yards). So yeah, he’s efficient, but boring as hell. If Williams is boom-or-bust, Nix is store-brand oatmeal. Effective. Not exciting.
Michael Penix Jr.: Raw But Intriguing
Penix has 4 TDs, 3 INTs, and the worst passer rating of the class (85.6). But his quick release (2.51s time to throw) and 62.4% completion show promise. He’s surrounded by real talent (Bijan, Pitts, London), but hasn’t unlocked the offense yet. Still early.
Team Context: Why It All Matters
Chicago (Williams)
- 11th in scoring (25.3 PPG), but just 22nd in EPA/play
- Run game? Absolute trash. 32nd in EPA/rush
- O-line? 23rd in pass pro, even after big-money upgrades
- Ben Johnson’s offense is clicking, but Caleb’s delays and pre-snap penalties (7th-worst) are killing flow
New England (Maye)
- 4th in pass-blocking efficiency
- 27.6% play-action rate helping Maye stay in rhythm
- Weak WR group, but Maye still carving up defenses
Washington (Daniels)
- System relies on Daniels’ legs too much
- 3rd/4th down QBR: 23.6
- Turnovers and sacks are crushing their momentum
Where Caleb Williams Lands
Williams is ahead of Penix and Nix, no debate. But Maye has already passed him as a passer, and Daniels is neck-and-neck depending on what you value.
Where Caleb Wins:
- Ball security (1.3% INT rate is elite)
- Explosive play production
- Fantasy relevance
- Raw physical tools and play-extension ability
Where Caleb Loses:
- Accuracy (dead last in class)
- Deep ball inconsistency
- Pocket presence
- Holding the damn ball
His Week 3 performance against Dallas (67.9% comp, 4 TDs, 0 sacks, 142.6 rating) was a glimpse at his ceiling. But he’s still too often the reason drives stall or protections break down.
Maye looks like the guy you build your offense around for a decade. Daniels is a wild card with MVP-level athleticism and turnover-prone decision-making. Nix is Kirk Cousins without the fireworks. Penix? To be determined.
Final Verdict
Caleb Williams is still the most talented quarterback from this class. But talent doesn’t win NFL games alone. Timing, accuracy, and decision-making do. Until he speeds up his clock and dials in his mechanics, he’ll be chasing Drake Maye, not leading the race.
But if he gets it all to click? Strap in. Because nobody in this class has his ceiling.
