The Chicago Bears 2020 season has plenty of doubters. This isn’t a huge shock. After their disappointing finish to 2019 coupled with the decision to stick with Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback? Most experts project the team to be no better than 7-9 this season. With Trubisky at the helm and no ground game to cover him up? There is no saving it this year.
At least, that is what the opinions are. For the most part. So what about the analytics community? Do the numbers projections say the same thing? Adam Hoge of NBC Sports recently dug into some of the numbers released by Football Outsiders. The group is well-respected for its heavy mathematical approach to the game.
When looking at the prospects for 2020, the trends indicate the Bears aren’t that far off from being a playoff team. Much of this having to do with their defense as well as playing in a balanced division.
“They have a mean projection of 7.8 wins for the Bears, which isn’t great, but ranks 19th in the league. The Lions are at 8.0, the Packers are at 7.8 and the Vikings are at 7.6. It’s a wide open division. Football Outsiders gives the Bears a 38 percent chance of finishing with 8-10 wins and a 35 percent chance of finishing with 5-7 wins. On the more extreme end, there’s a better chance the Bears will have at least 11 wins (16 percent) than they will have four or less wins (11 percent).”
Chicago Bears 2020 season will come down to three things
Knowing the history of this team, it’s clear their success will depend heavily on several factors. Three though stand out above the rest. First, they need the quarterback position to deliver. Trubisky doesn’t have to be a star. He just can’t be a liability like he was last season. Next is the defense. Their talent is undeniable. Their big obstacle will be health. Remember that Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith, and Danny Trevathan all suffered season-ending injuries last season and it hurt the team.
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Finally, they need a serviceable kicker.
Eddy Pineiro just went on Injured Reserve with a groin issue. His third notable injury since joining the Bears last season. He’ll be replaced by veteran Cairo Santos who missed five of his nine field goal attempts last season. This team continues to get burned by bad kicking. With the prospect of several close games this year, this is a trend they desperately need broken.
If these conditions are (for the most part) met? The Bears will be playing in January.
