Nobody really took notice of it back in 2018. It was rather subtle and hard to distinguish. Yet as time has gone on, it’s become more and more obvious. When Ryan Pace took over as GM of the Chicago Bears in 2015, he operated with a particular strategy when it came to the NFL draft. Especially with his earliest picks. They had to be great athletes and squeaky clean characters. Simple enough, right? Not entirely. There was one other thing.
Proven production didn’t matter all that much.
Kevin White, their 1st round pick in 2015, played just one season at the Division I level for West Virginia. The rest of his college time was spent on the JUCO circuit. So he came in fairly raw. Then the injuries struck and it never seemed like he was able to adjust his game to avoid constant setbacks.
Leonard Floyd, their 1st round pick in 2016, was expected to be their pass rusher of the future. This despite three seasons of fairly average production that never topped 6.5 sacks. Last but not least was Mitch Trubisky, their 1st round pick in 2017. A guy they traded three extra picks to move up and get. While undoubtedly talented and having had a strong statistical year in 2016, he’d only started one season. Some were skeptical if that was enough to prove whether he actually knew how to play the position.
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They were proven right in their misgivings.
Ryan Pace seems to have throttle back on this strategy
It wasn’t until 2018 where it seemed like Pace started to change up his approach. That began with the selection of Roquan Smith. Most viewed him as the consensus top inside linebacker in the class. A super athletic kid who had two years of proven production that included getting his team to a national title game. Second round picks James Daniels and Anthony Millers followed this trend, both having played at least two years of standout play for Iowa and Memphis respectively.
In 2019 it continued with David Montgomery out of Iowa State who’d carried the Cyclones on his back during two standout seasons. Now came the 2020 draft and it’s more of the same. Cole Kmet played two full seasons for Notre Dame and broke out in 2019 as their go-to target at tight end. Jaylon Johnson was the main man at cornerback for Utah across three seasons. He’s been lauded as one of the most technically-sound in the entire draft.
Neither player was remotely called a “risk” at either selection. They’re considered high floor guys who should have at least decent NFL careers with a chance to be great. It’s fair to ask whether they would’ve been the picks if this were the Ryan Pace of three years ago.
Maybe not.
This is honestly something that needed to happen. While aiming for the most talented athletes in a draft is never a bad thing, that desire must be tempered with something else. Did that talent show up on the field enough? Some people scoff at college production as overrated. That’s not true. It can tell a vital part of the story. White, Floyd, and Trubisky are all living proof.
Kmet and Johnson might not have the biggest upside of players at their respective positions in this draft. However, their odds of NFL success are better because their games are more proven and well-rounded. This is the smart approach when it comes to drafting early.
