The tough thing about judging an NFL player on whether or not he had a successful season is most fans use just one particular stat to make the case. For example, Khalil Mack had 8.5 sacks in 2019. That’s his lowest total since his rookie year. Most people thus believe he was bad this season. The truth is he had 45 pressures total, just two fewer than last season. He was still highly effective. He just wasn’t able to finish a couple of them for sacks. The same problem can be attributed to Eddie Jackson.
He finished the season with two interceptions, much less than the six he had in 2018. Thus a lot of people came out in protest when the third-year safety was voted to his second Pro Bowl. For those who were betting on football, and watching the Bears underachieve, there was no way he deserved that honor with such a paltry stat line. However, ESPN analytics specialist Seth Walder came to his defense. After a deeper dive into the metrics, he revealed that Jackson had a way better season than people realize.
In other words, whenever quarterbacks tried to throw the ball in the vicinity of Jackson, the odds of it being completed were lower than normal.
“Completion Percentage Above Expectation (xComp +/-) aims to answer the elusive question, is a quarterback performing better or worse than expectations relative to the difficulty of their throws? xComp +/- allows us to compare all styles of quarterback play, through the same lens, to differentiate between the accuracy of quarterback in a conservative or quick-passing system to the accuracy of a gunslinger who takes shots downfield.”
Eddie Jackson wasn’t elite but he was still damn good
Even Jackson himself would admit he wishes he had a better season in 2019. He did have two interceptions but both of them were on last-second hail mary plays. He failed to get any with his trademark instincts even though he was close several times. Yet even other stats suggest he was still really good. Quarterbacks completed just 23-of-43 passes thrown his way (53.5%). His tackling also improved, allowing just 95 yards after the completion compared to the 173 he gave up the season before.
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Jackson is still one of the best safeties in the NFL and the Bears need to make sure he stays on their roster long-term. His rookie contract enters its final year in 2020. It would not be a shock if GM Ryan Pace was proactive in working out a contract extension before the regular season begins. Jackson has earned that money and should be a vital key to the defensive secondary for years to come.
