How Ryan Pace Will Finally Break Bears’ Hard Luck in 3rd Round

Crazy as it sounds, no NFL draft round has given the Bears more persistent problems in recent years than the 3rd round. It’s true. Of all seven rounds in the draft, that one has gone the longest without producing a Pro Bowler or All-Pro. First round? Mitch Trubisky. Second round? Cody Whitehair. Fourth round? Eddie Jackson and Tarik Cohen. Fifth round? Jordan Howard. Sixth round? Chris Harris. Seventh round? Charles Leno Jr.

The earliest any of those names were drafted was Harris in 2005. However, the 3rd round hasn’t seen one in 16 years when the Bears grabbed Lance Briggs in 2003. Since then they’ve had a remarkable streak of bad luck. Of the 14 players they’ve selected in that round during that span? Only four of them contributed anything noteworthy to the team in Bernard Berrian, Earl Bennett, Major Wright, and Chris Conte.

Not exactly an inspiring group. So what gives? The Bears absolutely need to make sure they hit on their 3rd round pick in 2019 because it’s the highest one they own. It will mark the third opportunity GM Ryan Pace has had to use one. Is there hope that he can finally break this miserable streak?

Yes, and here’s why.

Ryan Pace has kept Bears on a course that fits success rate in 3rd round

The 3rd round can be a tricky beast at times. It’s a weird middle ground that’s not quite a high area or a low area in the draft. So players that should’ve gone higher and lower sort of get intermixed, making it difficult for teams to sort them out. This problem has bedeviled the Bears for years, which begs the question. Is there any way for them to alter their approach and improve their chances?

The answer is yes, and the best part is Pace has already shifted that direction. When looking back over the top 3rd round selections of the past decade, most of them have the same thing in common: speed.

• Jimmy Graham (TE) – 4.56
• T.Y. Hilton (WR) – 4.34
• Trai Turner (OG) – 4.93
• NaVorro Bowman (ILB) – 4.52
• Emmanuel Sanders (WR) – 4.41
• James Conner (RB) – 4.65
• Thomas Decoud (FS) – 4.50
• Brandon Willaims (DT) – 5.37
• Cliff Avril (DE) – 4.51
• Jared Cook (TE) – 4.5
• Akiem Hicks (DT) – 5.23
• Danielle Hunter (DE) – 4.57
• Kareem Hunt (RB) – 4.62
• David Johnson (RB) – 4.50
• Jordan Reed (TE) – 4.72
• Mike Wallace (WR) – 4.33
• Jeremy Zuttah (C) – 4.99
• Austin Hooper (TE) – 4.72

Average speed for each of those positions:

Wide receiver – 4.48
Cornerback – 4.48
Running back – 4.49
Free safety – 4.53
Strong safety – 4.55
Outside linebacker – 4.65
Tight end – 4.70
Inside linebacker – 4.76
Defensive end – 4.80
Defensive tackle – 5.06
Center – 5.30
Offensive tackle – 5.32
Offensive guard – 5.36

The numbers don’t lie. Almost all of those players who are current or former Pro Bowlers came in on the positive end of those averages. Put in simpler terms, there are few substitutes in the NFL for speed. This is a lesson Pace has already put into practice with his previous two 3rd round picks in Hroniss Grasu and Jonathan Bullard. So why did neither work out?

He drafted them at positions where size matters more than most

One thing about the offensive and defensive lines is they tend to have a greater reliance on size than other position groups. While Grasu and Bullard both had speed (5.03 and 4.93 times in the 40), they both weren’t overly big. Grasu was 6’3, 297 lbs. Small even for a center. Bullard was 6’3, 285 lbs and asked to play a position that tends to demand players who are 6’5, 300+. Not ideal.

That said, Pace’s adherence to speed remains strong and it’s been paying off big of late. Mitch Trubisky, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, Roquan Smith, James Daniels, and Bilal Nichols are all examples of this strategy. All excelled in 2018. It stands to reason that if he sticks to it when the Bears go on the clock with the 87th pick, the odds favor it working out in some capacity.

If nothing else, it’s further insistence for Bears fans to watch the 40-yard dash times at the upcoming scouting combine this year.