Ask the national pundits about who will likely cost the Chicago Bears the game on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles if they indeed lose. It’s a virtual guarantee that 99% of them will say Mitch Trubisky. Why? Namely, because they have it in their heads that he’s been their weak link all season and the reason they lost games.
Never mind the fact that in the three losses Trubisky was part of the defense allowed 21 points in the 4th quarter against Green Bay and 31 points in Miami. Then the special teams gave up two touchdowns against the Patriots. But sure we’ll go ahead and say Trubisky was the problem in those games because it fits the narrative. Even if it’s wrong.
Now people are ready to proclaim that the mighty 9-7 Eagles are going to come into Soldier Field and presumably do what they did to him last season which was harass him constantly and shut him down. There are just a few problems with that perception. For starters, this isn’t 2017. Both teams are vastly different from over a year ago.
Mitch Trubisky has a better offense facing a worse Eagles defense
Here’s the thing. For starters, last year the Eagles defense was at home. They had crowd noise on their side and a ridiculously deep pass rush that was able to apply pressure without the need of blitzing. They blitzed on a meager 19% of their pass rush plays, ranking them a distant 26th in the league.
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Having lost Vinny Curry to free agency and Derek Barnett to injury, they haven’t had that same luxury. Philadelphia has blitzed considerably more often as a result. One of the reasons they’re doing so is because without pressuring the QB, their biggest weakness gets exposed. That being their secondary. The Eagles cornerback position has been decimated by injuries and is a big reason the team ranks 30th in pass defense.
Think about this. The Eagles last year had their bye in week 10. From there through the NFC championship they allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards on them once. This year they had their bye at week 9. Through the end of the regular season, they’ve allowed it four times. That includes 455 from Dak Prescott who was averaging 223 yards per game prior to their meeting back on December 9th.
So yeah. They’re nowhere close to what they were last year.
Where does Trubisky fit in all of this? The Bears quarterback has played against a pass defense ranked 20th or lower just four times this season. By contrast, he’s played a top 10 pass defense six times. Coincidentally those four games actually took place in a four-week stretch earlier in the season when the Bears played Tampa Bay, Miami, New England, and the Jets.
During that stretch, Trubisky was excellent. He completed 83 of 136 passes for 1223 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. That’s good for a 113.08 passer rating. He was at home for three of those games. Even worse for the Eagles? He wasn’t phased much by the blitz, completing 18 for 294 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.
Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel weren’t around the last time Philadelphia saw Trubisky. There’s also the presence of tight end Trey Burton who played for the Eagles last year. That experience could also prove invaluable. Truth be told the only thing that can stop Trubisky from having a great game on Sunday is himself.
If he plays with the same calm and confidence he’s shown over the past three weeks? Philadelphia could be in trouble.
