All offseason long the most baffling topic of discussion was whether the Chicago Bears might trade Jordan Howard. It came almost out of nowhere when SM and other outlets like John Mullin reported the team was exploring the idea of moving the 23-year old running back. This despite coming off his second-straight season of over 1,000 yards rushing. He’s young, productive and cheap. That’s the Ryan Pace trifecta.
Something wasn’t adding up. The best reason anybody could find was that new head coach Matt Nagy viewed him as a liability in the passing game. Howard is not the best receiving back in the world, dropping 12 passes over his first two seasons. Yet one would think that a keen offensive mind like Nagy would find his way around such a problem right?
Following weeks would have both Nagy and Howard decline the idea that the back was ever part of trade discussions. Nagy says his role in the offense should be considerable. In fact, if things continue to line up as they are, there’s a strong possibility that Howard may end up being his best player in 2018.
Circumstances continue to favor a career year for Jordan Howard
Everybody knows that the past few months were almost exclusively dedicated to making Mitch Trubisky a success for the Bears. Yet the NFL is a team sport, and rising tides lift all boats. In their frantic efforts to help their quarterback, the Bears also did a lot to aide their star running back as well.
Subscribe to the BFR podcast and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
People have to remember that Howard faced fronts of eight or more defenders in the box on 43.12% of his rushes last year. That ranked him fifth among starting running backs in the league. So logic dictates the goal of the Bears would be to find a way where defenses could do that anymore. Improving at wide receiver is the natural solution.
The Los Angeles Rams had the same problem with Todd Gurley in 2016. He faced 8-man boxes 25.9% of the time that year and managed just 885 yards and six touchdowns. A year later they stockpiled new receivers and that number dropped to 16.85%. He rushed for 1,305 yards and scored 13 touchdowns, winning Offensive Player of the Year.
For what it’s worth, Howard averaged 5.4 yards per carry against boxes with six defenders or fewer in them last season.
Offensive line improvements must be noted
Then there’s the matter of the offensive line. Harry Hiestand is one of the best coaches in the business. He’s known for being great with linemen and is particularly proficient at getting their run blocking into tip-top shape. For example, the 2017 Notre Dame offense which could barely pass the ball still managed to run for over 3,000 yards. This despite playing a schedule that included six ranked teams.
Then there’s rookie second round pick James Daniels. He’s expected to be their new starter at left guard and might be one of the best interior run blockers in the 2018 draft class. Here’s what Eric Edholm of Pro Football Weekly said about him.
“One of the better interior run blockers in this year’s class. Nice controlled movement — fluid and patient. Great initial quickness off the snap and shows the ability to make tough reach blocks, even against quick 3-technique tackles. Maxes out arm length to bump and steer rushers off their course and out of harm’s way. Nice hip flexion and knee bend for a zone scheme.”
Combined with Cody Whitehair and a healthy Kyle Long, Howard should get quality blocking up front all season. If that weren’t enough, there’s one other overlooked benefit.
Bears 2018 schedule looks light on good run defenses
People are often taught not to take what happened a year ago as assurance the same will happen in the present. That’s often why strength of schedule projections can be so worthless. Still, looking at the array of opponents the Bears face in 2018, it could end up being a great year for Howard.
Here are the run defense rankings for some of the #Bears opponents in 2018 from last year:
Buffalo (29th)
L.A. Rams (28th)
NY Giants (27th)
NY Jets (24th)
Tampa Bay (23rd)
SF 49ers (22nd)
NE Patriots (20th)
Seattle (19th)
Detroit (18th)
Green Bay (17th)Hello @JHowardx24
— Erik Lambert (@ErikLambert1) May 21, 2018
Sure there’s a likelihood some of those numbers will be improved this year but others won’t. In fact some may get even worse. Combine that with the improvements listed above and this is the latest indication that Howard will rampage over the NFL this season.
