Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Exploring and Explaining Why Ryan Pace Is Afraid to Draft QBs

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Ryan Pace said from the moment he took over as GM of the Chicago Bears that the quarterback position would be a central focus moving forward. If he had his way, he’d look to acquire a new one every year. Specifically in the draft if possible. It was hard not to believe him at the time. The man came from New Orleans where everything was geared around making the QB as great as possible. Yet as we’ve all learned.

With Pace? Actions speak so much louder than words.

The GM just completed his sixth draft running the franchise. It’s also the fifth draft where he failed to select a quarterback. His only selection to date was the massive gamble on Mitch Trubisky back in 2017. One that is reaching its almost inevitable end. Chicago declined to pick up his 5th-year option. That means if he can’t beat out Nick Foles, he’s probably gone in 2021. No doubt destined to become one of the greatest disappointments in Bears history.

Yet the question remains. Why won’t Pace take more chances on the most important position in his sport?

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Ryan Pace is second-worst of modern era at QB draft frequency

The Bears didn’t have a general manager for the first time until 1974 when the late Jim Finks took over. Since then they’ve had eight men who’ve held that level of power inside the organization. People might be shocked to hear that among those eight, Pace is the second-worst when it comes to frequency at drafting quarterbacks.

  • Jim Finks – 8 in 10 years
  • Jerry Vainisi – 1 in 4 years
  • Bill Tobin – 5 in 6 years
  • Rod Graves – 0 in 4 years
  • Mark Hatley – 2 in 4 years
  • Jerry Angelo – 5 in 11 years
  • Phil Emery – 1 in 3 years
  • Ryan Pace – 1 in 6 years

Only Graves had a worse track record and some could argue he’s the worst personnel decision-maker the Bears have ever had. Not exactly the best company to keep. Both men only made the playoffs once largely in spite of their quarterback play rather than because of it. Graves was fired two seasons after it happened for him. This will be Pace’s second since 2018. If the trend holds true, he could be in big trouble.

Mickey Loomis might share some blame here

Everybody has a starting point. Somewhere they learned how to operate in a front office and under somebody who probably had success. For Pace, his mentor was Mickey Loomis. He is one of the longest-tenured GMs in the NFL, having taken over the New Orleans Saints way back in 2002. If anybody taught Pace how to handle the quarterback position, it would’ve been him. So fans might be stunned to learn this.

In 19 offseasons running the franchise, Loomis drafted a quarterback five times. None of them above the 3rd round.

Now part of that can be attributed to the good fortune of landing Drew Brees in 2006. Still, to not invest a pick at QB every couple of years is rather shocking. Bill Belichick had Tom Brady for 20 years and still drafted 10 quarterbacks. Loomis has traditionally preferred to go after veteran free agents or acquire arms via trade. Pace has followed this style ever since he took over with the exception of Trubisky and maybe that’s because there was no Brees out there to grab.

If Kirk Cousins had become available a year sooner in 2017, would Pace have pursued him rather than drafted a QB? Knowing his track record, it’s hard not to wonder.

Is personal background another key?

There’s also something else to consider. Pace’s own personal history. He never made it to the NFL as a player, but he did have a career in college football. He played defensive end at Eastern Illinois University. So his background comes with expertise on the defensive side. This would explain why he’s been much more proficient at building the Bears defense rather than the offense.

Then there is how he climbed the ladder as a scout. It quickly became clear his strengths were on the pro personnel side. Meaning Pace was adept at identifying quality veterans the team could bring in to help. He eventually rose to become director of pro personnel. He didn’t actually get too involved in the college side of things until 2013 when he became director of player personnel. So is it really a surprise he’s leaned more towards guys with experience at quarterback?

His selection of Trubisky felt like it was made by a man who was still green at evaluating college prospects. Too much picking with his heart rather than his head.

Has Ryan Pace gotten gun shy?

The last part of this entire thing is the one that might be the most understandable. Has the Trubisky whiff made Pace gunshy? While the GM is never afraid to take risks, even he might not be fully recovered from such a monumental gamble like he took three years ago and seeing crumble before his eyes. That would make a lot of men start to second-guess their ability to evaluate the position.

This of it like this. You love swimming in pools and have done it for years. Then for the first time, you decide to go swimming in the ocean. Barely a few minutes in, a shark bites a chunk out of your leg. Wouldn’t you be reluctant to go back into the ocean after that? This could be what has happened to Pace.

Or maybe it’s just a combination of everything. Either way, the lack of investment certainly isn’t improving the Bears’ chances of finally finding that elusive franchise quarterback.

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