Opinions on Justin Fields up to this point are mixed. Some believe the 11th overall pick hasn’t played well. He has been largely ineffective. Others claim he has overcome a limited scheme and a difficult start to show considerable improvement in recent weeks. Enough to offer excitement about the trajectory he is on. The truth is this debate won’t end until the rookie starts to look better in the stat department.

That likely may not come this week against the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re 5-1 and have been rolling teams lately. That being said, this actually presents a great opportunity. This opponent more than others represents the perfect measuring stick to see if Fields has indeed improved from where he was back in September. There are a couple of key reasons why.

Reason #1: They stop the run

It might be a passing league but stopping the run is still vital to defensive success in the NFL and no team does it better than Tampa Bay. They’ve been suffocating opposing running games for over two years now. They were #1 against the run in 2019, #1 against the run in 2020, and they’re #1 against the run in 2021. A big reason for this success is two-fold. The powerful interior defensive tackle duo of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh combined with fast and instinctive linebackers like Devin White and Lavonte Davis.

This is obviously a problem for the Bears. Pretty much the only thing they do well this year offensively is run the ball. They’re 7th in rushing yards and 8th in attempts. So what will happen when the opponent is able to take that away? There is only one course of action left. Throw the ball. Like it or not, the coaching staff will have to let Fields sling it.

Reason #2: They blitz (a lot)

One of the favorite stats of the Fields critics this season is his struggles against the blitz this year. So far he’s completed 17 of 31 passes for 158 yards, no touchdown, and an interception. Good for a 55.6 passer rating. The belief out there right now is if you blitz the rookie, he is likely going to struggle. This isn’t great news for the Bears since Tampa Bay is one of the heaviest blitzing defenses in the NFL.

Their defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is notorious for it. Not just blitzing in general either. He’s also pretty effective at providing different variations. Tampa’s blitz percentage this season is 39.0%. That is the highest in the NFL by a pretty comfortable margin. They were going to blitz Fields regardless.

Justin Fields will have to take more risks in this game

He’s done a good job of keeping the ball out of harm’s way, for the most part, this season. His interceptions have often come less from bad decisions and more from just bad breaks. A tipped pass here. A no-called penalty on the defense there. Against Tampa Bay though he’ll have to be willing to attack. The Buccaneers’ weakness right now is their secondary. Several key defensive backs are out with injuries.

Thus far the Bears have limited Justin Fields’ to 21 passing attempts per game through his first four starts. By far the lowest of any rookie with as many starts this season. Part of that is the success of the running game but another part is the coaches being clearly reluctant to let him sling it. They aren’t going to have a choice in this game.

With the #1 run defense opposing them and Tom Brady likely to put up points? Chicago will have to score to win and will have to throw to score. Time for the rookie to show what he’s learned.