Where will the Chicago Bears go with their 1st round pick? Everybody wants to think it will be a quarterback. Maybe it will be. However, when applying logic to this situation? It’s more likely to be a wide receiver. There are plenty of reasons to think this is the case. Allen Robinson still hasn’t signed a long-term deal. Anthony Miller is on the trade block. Javon Wims and Riley Ridley just aren’t that good. They need another weapon. Could Kadarius Toney be that guy?

The young kid out of Florida was quite a revelation in 2020. After being an afterthought during his first three seasons with the Gators, he exploded for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 11 games. He also added a punt return touchdown on top of that. He was one of the more explosive weapons in the SEC. Now there is genuine talk of him being a 1st round pick later this month. Plenty of experts have mocked him to the Bears.

Does that make sense?

ESPN analyst Matt Bowen thinks so. The former defensive back and well-respected tape analyst provided his list of the 15 best fits for the top 15 receivers in the 2021 draft class. His pick for Toney? Yep, the Bears. His reasoning was simple enough to understand. Andy Dalton needs weapons in order to function at a high level and the Bears have a lot of question marks at wide receiver beyond this season.

“Now insert Toney as Chicago’s slot player who can impact the game plan on pass targets and manufactured touches (see video below) from anywhere on the field. Nagy could deploy Toney on crossers and verticals from trips sets while using pre-snap movement and backfield alignments to get the ball in his hands. I see a prospect here with dynamic and explosive traits on tape. And that gives Nagy options when he’s creating game plans and calling plays.”

The central selling point here is the slot role. Remember that is the spot Miller played during the past three years. With him unlikely to be on the roster for much longer, they need to find somebody who can fill that void. Toney does have the skill set to not only do what Miller did but perhaps be an improvement given his superior speed. That said, there are reasons to be skeptical.

Kadarius Toney is staring down a shaky program history

Florida has produced a lot of future NFL wide receivers. A total of 42 have been drafted since 1966. After a strong start with the likes of Nat Moore and Wes Chandler, the program has produced a number of disappointments over the years. Since 1997, a total of nine have gone in the 1st or 2nd rounds. Only one of them (Percy Harvin) managed to make a Pro Bowl and even he suffered from problems.

Obviously, the program history shouldn’t define the player but not everybody is sold on Kadarius Toney as a slam dunk prospect. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compared him to former Atlanta Falcons receiver Harry Douglas. He sees a player that is inefficient as a route runner, has an injury history, and isn’t always great at handling contested catches. Don’t those sound like the same exact problems the Bears had with Miller?

Nobody is denying Toney is an exciting talent.

Good enough to take in the 1st round though? That feels like a bit of reach. Of course, Bowen isn’t talking about that. He’s merely pointing out the team and the player are fits for each other. This is hard to deny. The receiver would make a really fun target alongside Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson. If the Bears were seeking more explosive plays, he could provide them.