Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Why The Packers Will Lock Up The NFC’s Top Seed Tonight – SNF Best Bets

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The Chicago Bears’ path to the playoffs is clear. Win and they are in. With the San Francisco 49ers win over the Arizona Cardinals last night, all the Bears have to do now is beat the lowly 1-13 Jaguars today and then the dreaded Green Bay Packers in Week 17. If Green Bay beats the Tennessee Titans tonight, they will lock up the #1 seed in the NFC Conference. While most of the time that would make a Chicago fan puke, it’s actually great news for those who desire to see the Bears make the postseason. If Green Bay wins and they lock up the first seed, they will essentially have nothing to play for in Week 17. This means that they will likely sit their starters so that they will have extra rest and no risk of injury going into the playoffs. That bodes extremely well for the Bear’s chances of making the postseason.

However, Green Bay will have to get past the Titans, the highest-scoring offense in the league. Two MVP candidates will go head-to-head when Aaron Rodgers meets Derrick Henry. Both of these players have lit up scoreboards all season long and are big parts as to why their respective teams both rank in the top 3 offenses in the league. While we discussed why this game is important for Green Bay, it’s equally important for Tennessee. They need to keep pace with division rival Indianapolis to secure a home playoff game. DraftKings wants you to make some dough off of this critical game, and that’s why they are offering a great deal for new users to get started winning.

Sunday Night Football Best Bets

Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)

Spread: GB -3, TEN +3

I like the Packers in this game at -3 and there are several reasons for that. It’s easy to say that the Titans are in a huge fade spot since they scored 40+ last week and Green Bay had a “bad” win against the Carolina Panthers. Typically when Aaron Rodgers has a game as he had against the Panthers where he feels he played poorly, he goes off the next week. That does not help the Titan’s defense, which has been absolutely atrocious all season long. Rodgers should have no problem carving up the Tennessee secondary like a pumpkin on Halloween, and it’s definitely going to be a scary one for the Titans.

The problem with the Pack is that while their offense is hyper-efficient in the first half of games, they seem to really tail off once they get a big lead, which leads to backdoor opportunities for most of their opponents. I really believe that after last week, Rodgers will have his team ready for a full 60 minutes of football, and they may need it. Derrick Henry will be feasting all day long on this Packers defense, which might help keep the game close as the clock winds down. Still, if it’s only a field goal at home, I have to back Green Bay. I think they come out on fire and put the Titans to bed early.

Official Play: GB -3

Total: 54.5

This is an absolutely massive total, and as such, I would either bet the under or not bet it at all. First of all, cold-weather games in December at Lambeau typically don’t have a ton of scoring. That showed last week in a lower scoring game against Carolina. I think both teams will be able to put up points, but I’m not sure it will be to this extreme.

Second, I think this has at least a small amount of blow-out potential with Green Bay ripping Tennesee. As such, I don’t care much for betting the over on such a high total. The Titans will also be running the football quite a bit with Henry, which leads to an under. Everything discussed here means that everything would have to go right and smoothly for an over mid-50’s total, and I would rather just pass the game or bet the under than rely on that.

Official Play: UNDER 54.5 or No Play

Player Props:

Devante Adams OVER Receiving Yds – Does this need an explanation? He dominates secondaries, especially one ranked 27th against opposing receivers. Not a soul on Tennessee has a prayer.

Davante Adams Anytime TD – See above. He will torch them for a billion yards and scores.

Derrick Henry Anytime TD – Love Henry’s chances to get a TD here instead of yardage. Green Bay ranks just as bad against opposing RBs as Tennessee does against WRs, 27th in the league. Plus, they won’t be running a ton IF it’s a blowout.

Aaron Jones OVER Rushing Yds – Tennesse is bad against everything, so really, any Packer is in play. However, it is going to be cold, and Jones had a big game last time out.

Aaron Jones Anytime TD – Same applies here, love his chances to get into the endzone against a really bad Tennesee rush defense.

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