It is hard to believe that we’re getting a Wednesday afternoon NFL game. It seemed impossible just a year ago, but in the year of our lord 2020, we’ve seen some crazy things happen. At 3:30 pm EST today, the 6-4 Baltimore Ravens will take on the undefeated 10-0 Pittsburgh Steelers in an oddly unique AFC North showdown that takes the rivalry to new circumstances. The Ravens are absolutely devastated with injuries and double-digit cases of COVID-19 on their team, which has really made them a shell of themselves for this game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson was diagnosed with COVID this past week and will be ineligible to play, along with Running Backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins. Robert Griffin lll will start at QB for Baltimore. Wide Receiver Willie Snead IV will also be sidelined, as well Tight End Mark Andrews and Fullback Patrick Ricard. Linebackers Matthew Judon and Pernell McPhee will not make the trip, and neither will Defensive Lineman Calais Campbell or Brandon Williams. Enough for you?
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Spread/Total
PIT -10.5 (-110), BAL +10.5 (-110)
Total: 42
The Steelers are massive favorites at home against a depleted Ravens roster that has been plagued by COVID issues. This line was just 4 points a week ago before these issues, which shows you a ridiculous number jump that the injuries and diagnoses on Baltimore have made to this spread.
CBS Sports: Pete Prisco – PIT, Jason La Canfora – PIT, Will Brinson – PIT
Bleacher Report: Gary Davenport – PIT, Brad Gagnon – BAL, Matt Miller – BAL
ESPN: Matt Bowen – PIT, Mike Clay – PIT, Kevin Seifert – PIT
Predictions
There are several ways that I am looking to attack this game. There is no way I am laying double-digit points with the Steelers despite the COVID concerns with Baltimore. This is a division game and the Ravens still have something meaningful to play for, so for them to at least keep it inside of 10 points is a bet for me. I hate laying double-digits in almost any contest, especially when a team has a competent head coach like John Harbaugh.
For the total, I am staying away. This is an extremely low total that I could see going either way. Pittsburgh has a very capable offense and a great defense going against RGlll, who hasn’t played in a meaningful game in years. However, there is something telling me that they will at least be decent enough in this game to put up 20 points, which leads me to a lean towards the over. Plus, RGlll is always ripe for a pick-6, and defensive scores always play towards an over.
Some player props that I like for Baltimore in this one are RGlll O169 passing yards and Gus Edwards O48 rushing yards. The simple fact is that the Ravens will most likely be playing from behind in this game, which means that later in the game they will be passing a bunch to keep up. RGlll is a capable QB that I think can eclipse that yardage total during the course of an entire game. With Ingram and Dobbins out, Edwards will be the star of Baltimore’s backfield. Even though the Steelers are great against the run, the Ravens will certainly look to take the pressure off their QB and establish a ground attack. Edwards is more than capable of getting 50 yards on the ground.
For Pittsburgh, I like Benny Snell O58 yards rushing. Connor is also out for this game, and Snell has shined in his limited time on the field this season. He rushed for over 100 yards against the Giants in week one without Connor, and if Pittsburgh gets a lead in this game, they will be looking to chew the clock. That leads me to believe that Snell will have no problem going over his yardage prop.
either way. Pittsburgh has a very capable offense and a great defense going against RGlll, who hasn’t played in a meaningful game in years. However, there is something telling me that they will at least be decent enough in this game to put up 20 points, which leads me to a lean towards the over. Plus, RGlll is always ripe for a pick-6, and defensive scores always play towards an over.
