Tuesday, April 23, 2024

NBA MVP Odds: Value Picks That Can Unseat “The King”

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LeBron James is once again leading the pack and is the current favorite to win the 2021 NBA Most Valuable Player Award. LeBron never ceases to amaze us with his abilities and longevity, and it’s incredible that he is still in contention to win the award this late in his career. At +150, he is the clear favorite to win his fifth MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook, which would be his first since 2013.

While James certainly deserves to be the favorite, at +150, there isn’t too much value there. Many other players are putting in exceptional performances week to week and deserve to be considered alongside LeBron. With so much of the season left to be played, the award is far from set in stone.

With Anthony Davis out for a while with a calf strain, the Los Angeles Lakers could be vulnerable over that span, which could hurt LeBron’s chances.

Here is the way the odds stack up as of today on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Joel Embiid +300

If there is anyone right now that has a chance to usurp “The King,” it’s the Philadelphia 76ers big man. I mentioned this yesterday in my NBA Futures article, but Embiid’s stat-line is eye-popping. He’s averaging 30 points and 11 rebounds per game, shooting 54% from the field and 39% from three, and is hitting at an 85% clip from the charity stripe. The guy is simply unstoppable right now.

The 76ers are also better when he is on the floor. They average 11 more points when he is on the hardwood for them, leading them to the top seed currently in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia is 19-5 when Embiid plays and 1-5 without him. The only thing that is hurting Embiid’s chances is the fact that the Sixers have the fourth-best record in the association despite being the East’s best team.

He will need to have more dominant performances this season while keeping up record-wise with the Lakers to have a chance to best James. If he can continue the pace that he’s on and have multiple performances as he had against the Chicago Bulls last Friday where he went for 50 points, he may just win this thing.

Stephen Curry +1400

We all knew coming into this season that the Golden State Warriors were not going to be the same team that won multiple Finals over the last 5 years. They lost Kevin Durant to the Nets a couple of years ago, and star SG Klay Thompson has been out with multiple injuries for the better part of that time as well. As a result, the Warriors are a team that has fallen on some hard times recently. But, the one thing going for them is their ultimate cheat code, PG Steph Curry. He has single-handedly kept the Warriors in the hunt for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, which is extraordinarily hard to do. He’s scoring 30 points per game while shooting 49% from the floor and 42% from three. At the free-throw line, he’s killing it with a 93% hit rate.

He has a ton of work to do if he wants to win the MVP award, meaning he will have to start averaging 35+ PPG to be considered. It’s not impossible, as Curry has been one of the elite scorers in this league for years, and is basically shooting the ball for the Warriors every possession.

What would push him over the top is if he manages to get Golden State to the playoffs with the team he has around him. They are, simply put, not very talented outside of Curry and what is left of Draymond Green. Young center James Wiseman has potential, but he is a rookie. If Curry gets this team to the Playoffs in the West? Look out for him to get some serious consideration.

Donovan Mitchell +6600

You would think that Mitchell would be higher than a 66-1 longshot to win the NBA MVP with how well his Utah Jazz are playing at the moment, but here we are. The Jazz are on a tear right now, rolling through their opponents and covering every spread thrown their way until they ran into the Los Angeles Clippers the other night. What deters some people from betting on Jazz futures is just that. We simply can’t know whether this team is legit or not until it faces some of the top contenders for the NBA Title. The Clips stopped their streak in its tracks. Mitchell is the best player on a really good team that owns the best record in the NBA as it stands. When that is the case, the player usually has pretty high odds to win the MVP.

The problem with Mitchell is he hasn’t really separated himself that much from his teammates to where we can clearly see he is the best player on the floor. I know basketball is a team sport, but this award usually goes to a player who is doing it all for his team each night. The Jazz are playing as a team to get to where they are, but Mitchell is their best player. He just needs to start playing at a level to where we can clearly see that night in and night out. Whether or not that would hurt the team as a whole remains to be seen, but nevertheless, the best player on the league’s best team needs to have at least some pizza money sprinkled on.

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