With ten games left in a regular season that many fans are eager to move past, Chicago can go one of two ways before it is said and done. The Bulls have the ninth easiest schedule remaining and an opportunity to earn a home game in the Play-In scenario. Finishing in the seventh or eighth slot in the Eastern Conference standings would mean only needing to win one game to earn a playoff spot, whereas a ninth or tenth-place finish would force the Bulls to win two games in a row for the privilege of meeting the top seed in the East. How realistic is each route, and what’s the worst-case scenario?
Play-In Tournament Bound
Clinching a spot in the Play-In tournament is the leader in the clubhouse for how the Chicago Bulls season will conclude. At over an 84% probability, according to Basketball Reference, the weak remaining schedule and current roll they are on bodes well for this possibility. If they can earn a seventh or eighth seed, their 20-17 home record would fare much better than their road record of 14-21.
Their next five games will be very indicative. Each of them is a very winnable road game, and they’ll need at least three wins to keep their current pace as the 10th seed. First, they visit the Portland Trail Blazers, losers of seven of their last ten, and then the Bulls will head to Los Angeles and take on both the Clippers and Lakers. Paul George is sidelined for the Clippers, while K.C. Johnson reports it’s unlikely that LeBron James will return before either of the two upcoming matchups with the purple and gold.
Worst Case Scenario
While a Play-In scenario is the most likely and best-case scenario for the Bulls, there’s always another side to the coin. In this case, it’s somewhat self-inflicted. The Toronto Raptors, the current 9th seed, and the Indiana Pacers, the current 11th seed, both own the tiebreaker over the Bulls. Should their record be identical when the regular season ends, they would surpass them in the standings.
Toronto holds a .5-game lead over the Bulls right now, and the Pacers are only 1.5 games behind Chicago for the final Play-In spot. The good news? Those teams have the 13th and 5th most difficult schedules remaining, and the Indiana Pacers Play-In odds sit at 19%. Not to mention, their best player Tyrese Haliburton remains sidelined, at least through tonight’s game against Boston and possibly beyond that.
Should Indiana or Washington overtake the Bulls’ tenth seed before the season’s end, Chicago would be left in ruins. Orlando owns the Bulls’ draft selection in the 2023 draft if it lands outside of the top four. Chicago’s chances of retaining their pick are 20.2%, a number that is rapidly diminishing as more wins compile in the Windy City. Barring historic levels of draft lottery luck, Chicago would be left with no Play-In or playoff berth, no draft selection, and many expiring contracts and fuming roster pieces.
Only Options Left
While many might not agree with the Bulls’ choice to pursue the playoffs with a full head of steam or may believe a first-round exit is an absolute peak for how the season will end, there’s nothing else to cheer for at this point. There are only two options left for this season. The best is a low-seeded playoff run starting with a win-or-go-home Play-In tournament, continuing to a seven-game series against the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, or Philadelphia 76ers, hoping for an underdog story for the ages. The worst is no Play-In spot, no playoff appearance, no draft pick, and some serious seismic shifts throughout the entire franchise this offseason. Patrick Beverley is all in, are you?
HILLO