It’s Caleb Williams at #1. Everybody around the NFL believes it. GM Ryan Poles had done nothing even remotely to try downplaying it. The Chicago Bears will take their quarterback of the future at that spot. The real intrigue for this team doesn’t begin until they’re on the clock again with the 9th overall pick. There is no shortage of possibilities at that spot. Common projections have the Bears targeting a wide receiver. Others see a top pass rusher, edge or interior. Some even see a potential upgrade at left tackle.
All can be justified in one way or another. While everybody has their opinion, Poles is the one holding the power. Getting inside his head is the key to determining what the Bears do. Albert Breer of the MMQB reached out to various people around the NFL who have a friendship with Poles, asking their opinions on what he will do. The general feeling is that if he can’t move down from #9, which appears to be his preference, then the Bears will look to add the best offensive player on their board.
That says a lot.
The Bears traded Justin Fields before St. Patrick’s Day, and they invited only one quarterback to Lake Forest for a top-30 visit (in-house visits with prospects before the draft). During that visit, Caleb Williams dined with vets at a separate restaurant from the other five prospects in town. They sent the calvary to USC for its pro day. Williams is, for all intents and purposes, a Bear already.
Which takes you, then, to the second of their first-round picks. Other teams have gotten the sense that Chicago will try to move down given their dearth of picks on Day 2 (1) and Day 3 (2). If the Bears stick, a couple of friends of GM Ryan Poles said they think he’ll be looking to add talent around Williams. So if one of the top three receivers slide to Chicago, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen could get a running mate. If not? Maybe an offensive lineman or Texas 3-technique Byron Murphy II.
This tells us two things about Ryan Poles’ process.
He doesn’t feel four picks are enough to get him through this draft, which isn’t surprising. He’s had no fewer than ten through each of the previous two. It also indicates the top of his board leans heavily on the offensive side. That falls in line with what experts have said for weeks. This leans into the belief that Chicago would like to move down, grab some extra picks, and take a top defensive lineman to pair with Montez Sweat. However, if forced to stay put at #9, Poles won’t reach for one. He will take one of the wide receivers or an offensive lineman to help Williams.
This is another reminder that this GM never lets need dictate his draft process. Ryan Poles is always about sticking to his board. Some will say if the Bears are so desperate for defensive line help, why not just take one at #9? The simple answer is that higher-graded prospects will likely be on the offensive side at that spot. That wouldn’t be smart drafting. His responsibility is to take the best players. If the team is eager to help the defensive line, Poles must find an area in the 1st round where he can justify taking one. If it’s not at #9, move down into the mid-teens, where it is more acceptable.
@David, you are 100% correct but the main point was that 20 receivers were taken top 5 in the last 50 years or 1 in every 2.5 years. I feel the odds that 3 are worthy of that this year is media hype. They may all be good but I’d be careful to believe everything you read. Hell, I only believe half of what I actually see. The media made Odell Beckham a legend over 1 catch and since then, I don’t think he’s been anything special. I wouldn’t be against taking one of them but I think the odd… Read more »
@mbearest that’s great info and thanks for the research. With that being said we could write the same comment with every position group that they decide to draft at any position. The draft is a lottery for all positions, not just with WRs. Poles could draft Murphy at #9 and he busts, he could draft Alt and he busts because he messes his back up (or any reason).
I 100% understand the thought process, but wouldn’t that also be true for anyone?
Beware of the belief that all these receivers would be top 5 picks in ANY other drafts. History shows that it doesn’t happen often and many times, they don’t pan out. Here are all the receivers drafted in the top 5 since 1975. As you can see in the last 50 years, only 20 receivers have been picked in the top 5 and IMHO, maybe half have been worthy of being picked that high.To be fair, there are a decent amount of others that came in the top 10 but those were also a Mixed bag as far as production.… Read more »
Big name WRs don’t win jack. They get traded away when their contracts get bloated up to QB money. Aaron Donald and Chris Jones won SBs.
@SlipKnotz I think that Dexter can still be that dominant starting 3 Tech. Look at Chris Jones Rookie stats. He had 28 Tackles and 2 sacks. The following year he had 32 tackles and 6.5 sacks. He didn’t really take off until his 3rd season. He was also drafted in the 2nd round and was the 8th rated DT going into the draft. Gervon Dexter is the exact same height and weight as Jones and also selected in the 2nd round. He had 20 tackles and 2.5 sacks in a limited role his Rookie season, but was coming on strong… Read more »