Bears Mailbag — What Would A Rebuild Look Like?

Once upon a time, the Chicago Bears were 5-1 and looking like a sure-fire bet to make the playoffs — this, despite legitimate concerns stemming from their play (including their five wins).

That was a painful month ago.

Since then, the Bears have lost four straight games in brutal fashion.  Two incompetent offensive performances in prime time have book-ended two other terrible defeats, and the Bears are now 5-5 and very much outside of the playoff bubble, looking in.

With a bye week this week, and some interesting nuggets starting to come out of Halas Hall (see below), we’ll see if the Bears can rebound with some of their newfound knowledge and go up to Green Bay and shock the Packers in two weeks.  If they can, this season still has a bit of life.  If not, well, no one should be surprised.

With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag.  Thanks to everyone who submitted questions.  I always appreciate the participation.  Follow me on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.

Bears Mailbag

Diving into this question a little more:

To start, yes, I do believe a rebuild is coming.  The Bears really don’t have any more realistic cards left to play to fix their offense, and with six games remaining (and two games out of the playoff picture), it’s hard to imagine Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy retaining their jobs for a lousy finish after a 5-1 start, no matter how fortunate.

That said, the question becomes — will this rebuild be a “soft” rebuild or a total tear-down?  The Bears have enough pieces on defense that, even with some painful moves for salary cap purposes, it should remain a decent unit with the right coaching.  And if the new regime thinks they can fix the Bears’ offensive personnel issues quickly (namely, the OL and QB), they may opt for a retool this offseason with the hopes of giving it one more go in 2021.  The Bears will gladly trade some defensive prowess for a significant upgrade in production and potency from their offense.  Some sacrifices I can see the Bears making in that regard, on defense, including trading Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks.  They also may try to do the old “take a player and a draft pick for free” with Robert Quinn, though I doubt anyone would be interested.

If the Bears can take their newfound cap space from those moves and additional draft picks (along with the projected compensatory draft picks they’re likely looking at), they can make some significant investment in the offense.  At least 2-3 new starters on the OL, a QB of the future (potentially), and a new coach that can run the offense well and design good game plans can certainly have the Bears competitive in 2021.

However, if the new regime doesn’t think they can rebuild the offense fast enough, or they don’t want to reallocate resources in “shorter term” investments for the sake of a quicker playoff run, then they may opt for a total rebuild.  In that case, the Bears really only have a few pieces truly worth hanging on to:  James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, Darnell Mooney, Tarik Cohen, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson.  (Unfortunately, Khalil Mack would also be traded, in this scenario.)

Everyone else should be considered either a secondary asset or expendable.  And in a scenario like this, the Bears are likely looking at a “go through the motions” 2021, and targeting 2022 as the earliest they’ll be competitive again — with 2023 being the likeliest scenario.

So, Bears fans, I’d prepare for a few more arduous years.